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Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

Markets

  • Above 34%

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $328 · Liquidity $300

  • Above 36%

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $273.2 · Liquidity $212

  • Above 40%

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $61.6 · Liquidity $61.6

  • Above 44%

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $13 · Liquidity $13

  • Above 42%

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $12 · Liquidity $12

  • Above 30%

    • Yes86%
    • No14%

    Volume $6.7 · Liquidity $6.7

  • Above 32%

    • Yes82%
    • No18%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 38%

    • Yes39%
    • No61%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 46%

    • Yes6%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the share of voters who approve of Donald Trump's job performance as president in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 30%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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