Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?
Markets
Before Dec 1, 2026
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $1.6K
Before Aug 1, 2027
- Yes35%
- No65%
Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $809.3
Before Apr 1, 2027
- Yes24%
- No76%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $626
Before Jan 1, 2028
- Yes40%
- No60%
Volume $814 · Liquidity $698
Resolution rules
If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets
When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 79%
24h vol $927.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
Yes: 74%
24h vol $313.2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?
No: 99%
24h vol $254 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?
Yes: 83%
24h vol $2.8 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will the US create a national AI regulator?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 72%
24h vol $2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 21%
24h vol $2 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Will UC reinstate its SAT/ACT requirement before 2028?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $0.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 45%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 56%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 48%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028