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Next government of the United Kingdom?

Markets

  • Labour majority

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $749.6

  • Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $311.5 · Liquidity $286.5

  • Conservative minority

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $243 · Liquidity $38

  • Labour minority

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $191.5 · Liquidity $117.2

  • Labour minority + SNP support

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $171.2 · Liquidity $150.2

  • Labour minority + Green support

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $166.4 · Liquidity $136.4

  • Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $144.3 · Liquidity $130.3

  • Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $139.3 · Liquidity $125.2

  • Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition

    • Yes8%
    • No93%

    Volume $139.2 · Liquidity $125.2

  • Reform UK minority + DUP support

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $112 · Liquidity $57

  • Reform UK and Conservative coalition

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $78.6 · Liquidity $34.6

  • Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $61.4 · Liquidity $40.3

  • Conservative majority

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $44 · Liquidity $12

  • Reform UK majority

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $30.5 · Liquidity $20.5

  • Conservative minority + DUP support

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $30 · Liquidity $14

  • Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $30 · Liquidity $7

  • Reform UK minority + Conservative support

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $22.9 · Liquidity $13.6

  • Reform UK minority

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $17.1 · Liquidity $17.1

  • Conservative minority + Reform UK support

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $9 · Liquidity $9

Resolution rules

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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