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When will the next Category 5 hurricane form?

Markets

  • Before Nov 1, 2026

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $6.2K · Liquidity $3.9K

  • Before Oct 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $3.9K

  • Before Dec 1, 2026

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $3.1K

  • Before Sep 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $1.1K

Resolution rules

If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 157 mph) forms in the Atlantic before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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