Kalshi vs PredictIt: both are US prediction markets paying $1 per winning share, but they differ in scope, limits and — above all — fees.
Kalshi vs PredictIt at a glance
| Kalshi | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC-designated contract market | CFTC relief for its model; operators pursuing full exchange registration |
| Markets | Politics, economics, sports, weather, culture, crypto | Mostly US politics |
| Limit | Exchange rules | $3,500 per contract (since July 2025) |
| Trading fee | round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 − P)) | None per trade |
| Other fees | Maker fees on some markets | 10% of profits + 5% of withdrawals |
| Currency | USD | USD |
Regulation
Kalshi
Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC, the same category as Polymarket US. Every contract type is certified with the regulator.
PredictIt
PredictIt began in 2014 as a research project of Victoria University of Wellington, allowed by CFTC relief to run small-stakes political markets. After a long legal dispute, its limits were relaxed in July 2025: $3,500 per contract (from $850) and no more 5,000-trader cap.
PredictIt vs Kalshi fees compared
- Kalshi: taker fee = round up(0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P)) per its fee schedule. At 50¢, that's about 1.75¢ per contract. Some markets also charge makers a quarter of that.
- PredictIt: no fee to trade, but 10% of the profit on each winning trade and 5% of every withdrawal.
Example — 100 contracts at 40¢ that win, then withdrawn:
| Kalshi | PredictIt | |
|---|---|---|
| Fee to buy | 0.07 × 100 × 0.4 × 0.6 = $1.68 | $0 |
| Payout | $100 | $100 |
| Profit fee | — | 10% × $60 = $6.00 |
| Withdrawal fee | Depends on method | 5% × $94 = $4.70 |
| Approx. net profit | $58.32 | $49.30 |
Markets and liquidity
Kalshi lists a wide range of events, from Fed decisions to weather to sports, and serious volume. PredictIt goes deep on US politics, including races that other platforms don't cover. If you only trade elections, PredictIt's depth can be worth the fees; otherwise Kalshi's range and lower costs usually win.
Kalshi or PredictIt: which should you choose?
- Political specialist, trading occasionally: PredictIt is simple and focused.
- Active trader or broader interests: Kalshi, or Polymarket US as a second regulated option.
Compare Kalshi with Polymarket in Polymarket vs Kalshi.
Related guides
Next step
In the United States, the regulated route is the Polymarket US app. Read our guides on signing up and depositing to get started, start small and only use money you can afford to lose.