PredictIt is a US prediction market built around politics. You buy shares from 1¢ to 99¢ on questions like "Who will win the Senate race?", and each winning share pays $1. It's easy to use and deeply political — but its fees are among the highest in the industry.
How PredictIt works
- Markets: mostly US politics — elections, nominations, Congress, policy — plus some current events.
- Prices: 1¢-99¢; a price of 40¢ implies about a 40% chance.
- Payout: $1 per winning share, $0 per losing share.
- Accounts: US residents, in US dollars, with identity verification.
PredictIt started in 2014 as a not-for-profit project of Victoria University of Wellington, operating in the US under relief from the CFTC that allowed small-stakes political markets for research.
Limits changed in 2025
For years PredictIt had strict caps: $850 per contract and 5,000 traders per market. After a long legal fight with the CFTC, those rules changed in July 2025:
- the per-contract limit rose to $3,500;
- the 5,000-trader cap was removed.
Bigger limits mean deeper markets and fewer artificial price distortions near elections.
PredictIt fees
| Fee | Amount | When |
|---|---|---|
| Profit fee | 10% of the profit | On each winning trade |
| Withdrawal fee | 5% of the amount | Every withdrawal |
Example. You buy 100 shares at 40¢ ($40). They resolve YES and pay $100: a $60 profit. PredictIt takes 10% of the profit ($6), leaving $94. When you withdraw the $94, it takes 5% ($4.70). You keep $89.30 — a net profit of $49.30 instead of $60.
That's why a small edge that works on a low-fee exchange can lose money on PredictIt.
How to get started
- Register and verify your identity.
- Deposit through the payment methods shown in your account.
- Browse markets where you have a real view.
- Place trades — ideally with limit orders to avoid overpaying.
PredictIt vs Polymarket vs Kalshi
| PredictIt | Polymarket US | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Focus | US politics | Sports, economics, politics and more | Broad event contracts |
| Limit per contract | $3,500 | Exchange rules | Exchange rules |
| Fees | 10% of profits + 5% of withdrawals | Trading fee schedule | Trading fee by formula |
| Currency | USD | USD | USD |
For head-to-head comparisons, see Polymarket vs PredictIt and Kalshi vs PredictIt.
Verdict
PredictIt is simple, familiar and politically focused, and the 2025 limit changes made it more useful. The fee structure is its weakness: only traders with a clear edge should accept a 10% cut of profits plus 5% on the way out.
Official source: PredictIt.
Related guides
Next step
In the United States, the regulated route is the Polymarket US app. Read our guides on signing up and depositing to get started, start small and only use money you can afford to lose.