Mercados de predicción de Política
Contratos de eventos de Kalshi en vivo sobre elecciones, el Congreso, políticas y líderes mundiales. Los precios muestran las probabilidades del público, no certezas.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 71%
Vol. 24h $763.6 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
Proposition 1: 97%
Vol. 24h $760 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Idaho Senate margin of victory
Risch, 3+ pts: 92%
Vol. 24h $756.5 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
AOC defeats JD Vance: 10%
Vol. 24h $745.6 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will federal student loan wage garnishment resume before Jul 1, 2027?
No: 70%
Vol. 24h $742 · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Texas's 15th District margin of victory
Pulido, 2+ pts: 72%
Vol. 24h $739.5 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Kansas Governor-Senate combo
Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win: 58%
Vol. 24h $736 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
Nithya Raman, ≥2%: 44%
Vol. 24h $729.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many Attorneys General will Trump have?
2: 55%
Vol. 24h $725.3 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 42%
Vol. 24h $723.8 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Before January 20, 2029: 13%
Vol. 24h $687.1 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Alabama Governor margin of victory
Tuberville, 1+ pts: 90%
Vol. 24h $678.7 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Michigan's 7th District margin of victory
Lawrence, 1+ pts: 69%
Vol. 24h $672 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham: 13%
Vol. 24h $662.3 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
New York Democratic Senate nominee in 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 43%
Vol. 24h $650.4 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
South Dakota Senate margin of victory
Rounds, 3+ pts: 88%
Vol. 24h $639.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Louisiana Senate margin of victory
Letlow, 3+ pts: 77%
Vol. 24h $625 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Maine's 1st District margin of victory
Pingree, 17+ pts: 91%
Vol. 24h $624 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Georgia Governor margin of victory
Jackson, 1+ pts: 33%
Vol. 24h $616.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Florida's 25th District margin of victory
Moskowitz, 1+ pts: 81%
Vol. 24h $613 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Alaska Governor margin of victory
Democrats, 2+ pts: 83%
Vol. 24h $607.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Oklahoma Governor margin of victory
Mazzei, 1+ pts: 80%
Vol. 24h $606.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory
Crane, 1+ pts: 66%
Vol. 24h $599.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
2028 House winner
Democratic party: 73%
Vol. 24h $597.1 · Cierra 1 feb 2029
Wisconsin Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.2M: 80%
Vol. 24h $596.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
At least 1: 71%
Vol. 24h $591.5 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?
Above 110,000: 91%
Vol. 24h $550.3 · Cierra 7 feb 2027
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)
Yes, ≥1%: 28%
Vol. 24h $539.6 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Ohio's 7th District margin of victory
Miller, 4+ pts: 16%
Vol. 24h $531 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
J.D. Vance: 47%
Vol. 24h $499.5 · Cierra 1 mar 2028
MAGA Inc. 2026 total disbursements?
Above 20 million dollars: 98%
Vol. 24h $485 · Cierra 1 feb 2027
Who will be British Columbia's Premier after the election?
Lorne Doerkson: 88%
Vol. 24h $479.9 · Cierra 24 oct 2027
North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory
Ager, 1+ pts: 59%
Vol. 24h $479.6 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
At least 50 billion: 7%
Vol. 24h $478.9 · Cierra 31 mar 2027
Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory
Case, 30+ pts: 92%
Vol. 24h $477 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory
Cooke, 1+ pts: 78%
Vol. 24h $461.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Pennsylvania's 3rd District margin of victory
Rabb, 64+ pts: 96%
Vol. 24h $453.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Estonia parliamentary election winner?
Isamaa: 48%
Vol. 24h $446 · Cierra 6 mar 2028
Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?
English as Official State Language Amendment: 88%
Vol. 24h $442.2 · Cierra 2 nov 2027
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)
Above 211: 95%
Vol. 24h $437.5 · Cierra 1 feb 2027
Texas's 9th District margin of victory
Mealer, 1+ pts: 76%
Vol. 24h $429 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 28%
Vol. 24h $426.7 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
Ohio's 1st District margin of victory
Conroy, 1+ pts: 8%
Vol. 24h $418.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Taichung mayoral election winner?
Chiang Chi-chen: 70%
Vol. 24h $405 · Cierra 28 nov 2027
Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 42%
Vol. 24h $404.6 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Wyoming Governor margin of victory
Barlow, 19+ pts: 96%
Vol. 24h $400 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New York City mayoral election winner?
Zohran Mamdani: 84%
Vol. 24h $398.7 · Cierra 6 nov 2030
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $389.3 · Cierra 1 ago 2028