Mercados de predicción de Política
Contratos de eventos de Kalshi en vivo sobre elecciones, el Congreso, políticas y líderes mundiales. Los precios muestran las probabilidades del público, no certezas.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $389.3 · Cierra 1 ago 2028
New York's 1st District margin of victory
LaLota, 1+ pts: 85%
Vol. 24h $385.9 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 58%
Vol. 24h $385.5 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Will the Trump family be pardoned?
Yes: 82%
Vol. 24h $385 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 14: 90%
Vol. 24h $381.3 · Cierra 3 ene 2027
Montana's 1st District margin of victory
Forstag, 1+ pts: 44%
Vol. 24h $371.6 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
Christopher Luxon: 58%
Vol. 24h $342 · Cierra 7 nov 2027
Will Maryland Question 3 pass?
Yes: 97%
Vol. 24h $337.6 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Deportations in 2026?
Above 200,000: 100%
Vol. 24h $332.1 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Which November Swiss referendums will pass?
Fireworks Initiative: 57%
Vol. 24h $329.4 · Cierra 29 nov 2027
California's 21st District margin of victory
Costa, 2+ pts: 93%
Vol. 24h $327 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Washington's 3rd District margin of victory
Perez, 1+ pts: 88%
Vol. 24h $325 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Virginia's 6th District margin of victory
Cline, 3+ pts: 93%
Vol. 24h $322 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 41%
Vol. 24h $320.9 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
1: 59%
Vol. 24h $317.2 · Cierra 28 oct 2030
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Elif Eralp: 87%
Vol. 24h $312.9 · Cierra 1 oct 2027
Indiana's 5th District margin of victory
Spartz, 1+ pts: 81%
Vol. 24h $311.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Georgia Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.70M: 97%
Vol. 24h $307.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Texas Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 7.5M: 88%
Vol. 24h $307 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
When will Trump, Xi and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 79%
Vol. 24h $306.7 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Mississauga mayoral election winner?
Bonnie Crombie: 47%
Vol. 24h $302.6 · Cierra 26 oct 2027
Arizona Governor margin of victory
Biggs, 1+ pts: 8%
Vol. 24h $300 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
New Jersey's 3rd District margin of victory
Conaway, 6+ pts: 96%
Vol. 24h $298 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Iowa Governor margin of victory
Lahn, 1+ pts: 7%
Vol. 24h $297 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Will the US acquire any new territory?
Before Jan 21, 2029: 26%
Vol. 24h $297 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
America PAC 2026 total disbursements?
At least 60 million dollars: 92%
Vol. 24h $290 · Cierra 1 feb 2027
Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice winner?
Jimmy Blacklock: 75%
Vol. 24h $289 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Virginia's 2nd District margin of victory
Luria, 2+ pts: 80%
Vol. 24h $288 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Florida's 13th District margin of victory
Luna, 1+ pts: 65%
Vol. 24h $286.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Montana's 1st District margin of victory
Flint, 1+ pts: 50%
Vol. 24h $283 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Denver: 46%
Vol. 24h $272.3 · Cierra 7 ago 2028
Will a cabinet member be impeached?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 69%
Vol. 24h $266.6 · Cierra 20 ene 2029
Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $260.4 · Cierra 1 mar 2027
Milwaukee County, Wisconsin: David Crowley vote percent
At least 66%: 90%
Vol. 24h $260.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Maine Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 460K: 97%
Vol. 24h $251.2 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Next Serbian presidential election winner?
Student-backed candidate: 58%
Vol. 24h $251 · Cierra 27 dic 2027
South Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.40M: 87%
Vol. 24h $250.1 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)
Democratic party: 59%
Vol. 24h $249.8 · Cierra 7 nov 2029
Arizona Governor margin of victory
Hobbs, 2+ pts: 89%
Vol. 24h $249.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Lima Mayor winner?
Rafael López Aliaga: 87%
Vol. 24h $247.1 · Cierra 4 oct 2027
Oregon Governor margin of victory
Kotek, 2+ pts: 70%
Vol. 24h $246.3 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Ohio's 7th District margin of victory
Poindexter, 1+ pts: 91%
Vol. 24h $244.4 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Texas's 27th District margin of victory
Cloud, 3+ pts: 80%
Vol. 24h $243 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)
At least 9: 21%
Vol. 24h $240.8 · Cierra 3 nov 2026
New Jersey's 9th District margin of victory
Pou, 2+ pts: 92%
Vol. 24h $240 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
Illinois's 14th District margin of victory
Underwood, 5+ pts: 86%
Vol. 24h $240 · Cierra 3 nov 2027
How many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
At least 1: 70%
Vol. 24h $235 · Cierra 21 ene 2029
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 22%
Vol. 24h $234.1 · Cierra 3 ene 2027