Mercados de predicción de Tecnología y ciencia
Mercados de Kalshi en vivo sobre IA, espacio, lanzamientos tecnológicos e hitos científicos.
Datos de Kalshi, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic: 77%
Vol. 24h $42.1 · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $42 · Cierra 2 ene 2027
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 83%
Vol. 24h $41.7 · Cierra 1 jul 2027
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $33.3 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
Google: 76%
Vol. 24h $28.9 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
Yes: 58%
Vol. 24h $28.1 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
Before 2028: 69%
Vol. 24h $26 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Total space launches in October
Above 9: 98%
Vol. 24h $20.3 · Cierra 2 nov 2026
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
Before 2030: 67%
Vol. 24h $19.8 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
Before Jan 1, 2031: 51%
Vol. 24h $15 · Cierra 1 ene 2032
How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 285k: 99%
Vol. 24h $10 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
When will Virgin Galactic launch their next commercial Delta-class SpaceShip
Before July 2027: 88%
Vol. 24h $8.8 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?
Yes: 67%
Vol. 24h $8 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Next pandemic
Before 2030: 22%
Vol. 24h $6.6 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
Above $7.37: 99%
Vol. 24h $6 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will Russia name the pathogen in the Irkutsk pneumonia case in Oct 2026?
No: 92%
Vol. 24h $4.7 · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
Yes: 54%
Vol. 24h $3 · Cierra 1 ene 2035
When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin?
Before 2028: 92%
Vol. 24h $1 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
before April 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 abr 2027
How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026?
250 or more: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 24 ene 2027
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
No: 90%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ago 2099
When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
Before 2040: 38%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
No: 70%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2050
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
No: 75%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2050
Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
Hodge Conjecture: 50%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2045
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
Before 2040: 76%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Before 2040: 52%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2040
When will P vs NP be resolved?
Before 2030: 57%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2040
When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?
Before 2029: 40%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2029
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
Before 2030: 74%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
At least 60%: 83%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 31 dic 2027
Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030?
Z AI: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
United States: 66%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 31 dic 2029
When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Before 2032: 75%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
Yes: 54%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2030
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
Before Jul 1, 2028: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 jul 2028
Next LandSpace Zhuque-3 launch
Before Jan 1, 2028: 96%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
Yes: 55%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
Yes: 50%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
Before 2028: 89%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2028
When will Yang–Mills and the Mass Gap be resolved?
Before 2032: 49%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 7 ene 2032
How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 8k: 97%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?
Above 7: 95%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 8 ene 2027
How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 10: 87%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Above 0: 85%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
Above 8k: 99%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
No: 94%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
At least 25: 94%
Vol. 24h $0 · Cierra 1 ene 2027