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Fed median dot plot in December 2026

Markets

  • Above 4.1%

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1K

  • Above 4.3%

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $401 · Liquidity $201

  • Above 4.0%

    • Yes86%
    • No14%

    Volume $400 · Liquidity $400

  • Above 4.2%

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $385.9 · Liquidity $320

  • Above 3.9%

    • Yes99%
    • No1%

    Volume $250.1 · Liquidity $235

  • Above 4.5%

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $62.2 · Liquidity $31.2

  • Above 4.4%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $40.7 · Liquidity $20.7

  • Above 3.5%

    • Yes98%
    • No3%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 3.6%

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 3.7%

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 3.8%

    • Yes97%
    • No4%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Above 4.6%

    • Yes4%
    • No97%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the median projected appropriate level of the federal funds rate for year-end 2026, as shown in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, is above 3.5% at the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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