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Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Markets

  • Above 4.50%

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $173.4K · Liquidity $158.9K

  • Above 3.75%

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $62K · Liquidity $31.7K

  • Above 4.00%

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $56.4K · Liquidity $19.3K

  • Above 4.25%

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $56.2K · Liquidity $22.6K

  • Above 3.50%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $37.2K · Liquidity $18.8K

  • Above 2.75%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $21.7K · Liquidity $6.6K

  • Above 3.25%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $14K · Liquidity $2.1K

  • Above 3.00%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $8K · Liquidity $2.8K

  • Above 4.75%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.5K

  • Above 5.00%

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $969.9

  • Above 5.25%

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $944.9 · Liquidity $679.9

Resolution rules

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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