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US semiconductor production growth in 2026?

Markets

  • Above 14%

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Above 8%

    • Yes97%
    • No3%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $147

  • Above 18%

    • Yes59%
    • No41%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $602.1

  • Above 20%

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $704.2 · Liquidity $337.1

  • Above 22%

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $238 · Liquidity $129

  • Above 10%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $225.9 · Liquidity $43.5

  • Above 12%

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $191.9 · Liquidity $21.5

  • Above 16%

    • Yes76%
    • No24%

    Volume $145.6 · Liquidity $34.3

  • Above 24%

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $39.1 · Liquidity $15.1

Resolution rules

If the percent change in U.S. industrial production for “Semiconductors and related electronic components” in 2026 is above 8, as reported by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization release, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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