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How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?

Markets

  • Above 10%

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $640.7 · Liquidity $105.6

  • Above 20%

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $510.6 · Liquidity $441.8

  • Above 15%

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $278.8 · Liquidity $169.2

  • Above 25%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $50 · Liquidity $10

  • Above 30%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $24.9 · Liquidity $7.4

  • Above 5%

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $18 · Liquidity $12

  • Above 17%

    • Yes48%
    • No53%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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