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Will Claude be permitted for use in the Department of War supply chain?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $271

  • Before Apr 1, 2027

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Before Jul 1, 2027

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $23.5 · Liquidity $23.5

  • Before Jan 1, 2028

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Department of War or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit the Department of War or its contractors to use Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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