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Will China obtain an EUV machine?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $889.2 · Liquidity $370.4

  • Before Jan 1, 2029

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $849.4 · Liquidity $119.6

  • Before Jan 1, 2028

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $227.6 · Liquidity $27.3

  • Before Jan 1, 2030

    • Yes65%
    • No35%

    Volume $86.4 · Liquidity $45.1

Resolution rules

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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