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Will CMS announce a major Medicaid payment deferral against another state?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $547.9 · Liquidity $500.9

  • Before Sep 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $53 · Liquidity $52

  • Before Jul 1, 2027

    • Yes39%
    • No62%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announces a formal deferral of at least $50 million in federal Medicaid matching funds for claims submitted by a single U.S. state other than California or Minnesota, based on fraud, waste, abuse, or program-integrity concerns before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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