How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?
Markets
Below 7.60
- Yes87%
- No13%
Volume $18.8K · Liquidity $3.8K
Below 7.50
- Yes63%
- No37%
Volume $13.2K · Liquidity $6.2K
Below 7.00
- Yes27%
- No73%
Volume $10.5K · Liquidity $3.9K
Below 7.25
- Yes37%
- No63%
Volume $5.9K · Liquidity $1.9K
Resolution rules
If the United States falls below 7.60 in any year between 2025 and 2028 (inclusive) on the Economist's Democracy Index, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets
Mark Carney announces departure as Prime Minister of Canada?
Before Jul 1, 2029: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2029
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
$40 trillion: 100%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 31, 2029
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Anna Kelly: 17%
24h vol $256.3K · Ends Jan 27, 2029
How low will Trump's approval rating get during his term?
Below 36%: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 27, 2029
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$0 / No Acquisition: 89%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Jan 22, 2029
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
Before January 21, 2029: 20%
24h vol $2.9K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Who will Trump pardon?
Eric Trump: 66%
24h vol $2.6K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Will Trump resign during his term?
No: 78%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Will the Trump family be pardoned?
Yes: 82%
24h vol $385 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
No: 90%
24h vol $196 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore?
No: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
At least 1: 71%
24h vol $845.3 · Ends Jan 21, 2029