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How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?

Markets

  • At least 250 billion

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $108K · Liquidity $33.4K

  • At least 500 billion

    • Yes2%
    • No99%

    Volume $43.2K · Liquidity $7.6K

  • At least 2 trillion

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $36.2K · Liquidity $15.9K

  • At least 750 billion

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $31.3K · Liquidity $9.1K

  • At least 1 trillion

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $31.3K · Liquidity $6.5K

  • At least 50 billion

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $27.4K · Liquidity $11K

Resolution rules

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $50 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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