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California's 1st District margin of victory

Markets

  • McGuire, 20+ pts

    • Yes34%
    • No66%

    Volume $300 · Liquidity $200

  • McGuire, 5+ pts

    • Yes91%
    • No9%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 8+ pts

    • Yes85%
    • No15%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 11+ pts

    • Yes74%
    • No27%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 14+ pts

    • Yes61%
    • No40%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 17+ pts

    • Yes46%
    • No55%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 23+ pts

    • Yes20%
    • No81%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 26+ pts

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • McGuire, 29+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 1st District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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