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California's 23rd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Obernolte, 8+ pts

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Obernolte, 17+ pts

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $10 · Liquidity $10

  • Obernolte, 11+ pts

    • Yes69%
    • No32%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 14+ pts

    • Yes55%
    • No46%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 20+ pts

    • Yes27%
    • No74%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 23+ pts

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 26+ pts

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 2+ pts

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Obernolte, 5+ pts

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 23rd District by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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