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Missouri's 5th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Democrats, 3+ pts

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $5.5K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Democrats, 6+ pts

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • Democrats, 18+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 21+ pts

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 24+ pts

    • Yes76%
    • No25%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 27+ pts

    • Yes61%
    • No40%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 30+ pts

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 33+ pts

    • Yes28%
    • No73%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Democrats, 36+ pts

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 5th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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