Which November Swiss referendums will pass?
Markets
AHV VAT financing
- Yes28%
- No72%
Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $818.6
War Materiel Act amendment
- Yes32%
- No68%
Volume $982 · Liquidity $454
Fireworks Initiative
- Yes57%
- No43%
Volume $809.3 · Liquidity $809.3
Fair taxes for married couples
- Yes24%
- No76%
Volume $723.6 · Liquidity $313.6
Resolution rules
If Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional AHV financing through a VAT increase passes in the November 29, 2026 Swiss federal referendums, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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