Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
AOC defeats JD Vance: 10%
24h vol $745.6 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will federal student loan wage garnishment resume before Jul 1, 2027?
No: 70%
24h vol $742 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Texas's 15th District margin of victory
Pulido, 2+ pts: 72%
24h vol $739.5 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
Nithya Raman, ≥2%: 44%
24h vol $729.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Attorneys General will Trump have?
2: 55%
24h vol $725.3 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 42%
24h vol $723.8 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)
No, ≥1%: 71%
24h vol $697.4 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas's 23rd District margin of victory
Herrera, 8+ pts: 69%
24h vol $694.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alabama Governor margin of victory
Tuberville, 1+ pts: 90%
24h vol $678.7 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?
English as Official State Language Amendment: 88%
24h vol $676.2 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham: 13%
24h vol $662.3 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
New York Democratic Senate nominee in 2028?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 43%
24h vol $650.4 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
South Dakota Senate margin of victory
Rounds, 3+ pts: 88%
24h vol $639.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Louisiana Senate margin of victory
Letlow, 3+ pts: 77%
24h vol $625 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1%: 68%
24h vol $625 · Ends Oct 25, 2027
Maine's 1st District margin of victory
Pingree, 17+ pts: 91%
24h vol $624 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Georgia Governor margin of victory
Jackson, 1+ pts: 33%
24h vol $616.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Florida's 25th District margin of victory
Moskowitz, 1+ pts: 81%
24h vol $613 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Oklahoma Governor margin of victory
Mazzei, 1+ pts: 80%
24h vol $607.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Alaska Governor margin of victory
Democrats, 2+ pts: 83%
24h vol $607.1 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory
Crane, 1+ pts: 66%
24h vol $599.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
2028 House winner
Democratic party: 73%
24h vol $597.1 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
Wisconsin Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 2.2M: 80%
24h vol $596.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 22%
24h vol $592.2 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Josh Shapiro margin of victory
Shapiro, 4+ pts: 99%
24h vol $583 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Before January 20, 2029: 13%
24h vol $561.1 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?
Above 110,000: 91%
24h vol $550.3 · Ends Feb 7, 2027
California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (Yes)
Yes, ≥1%: 28%
24h vol $539.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
At least 1: 71%
24h vol $531.5 · Ends Jan 21, 2029
Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?
J.D. Vance: 47%
24h vol $499.5 · Ends Mar 1, 2028
MAGA Inc. 2026 total disbursements?
Above 20 million dollars: 98%
24h vol $494 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Who will be British Columbia's Premier after the election?
Lorne Doerkson: 88%
24h vol $479.9 · Ends Oct 24, 2027
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
At least 50 billion: 7%
24h vol $478.9 · Ends Mar 31, 2027
Hawaii's 1st District margin of victory
Case, 30+ pts: 92%
24h vol $477 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 42%
24h vol $473.7 · Ends Jan 20, 2029
Wisconsin's 3rd District margin of victory
Cooke, 1+ pts: 78%
24h vol $461.8 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Wyoming Governor margin of victory
Barlow, 19+ pts: 96%
24h vol $457 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Estonia parliamentary election winner?
Isamaa: 48%
24h vol $446 · Ends Mar 6, 2028
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)
Above 211: 95%
24h vol $437.5 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Texas's 9th District margin of victory
Mealer, 1+ pts: 76%
24h vol $429 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 28%
24h vol $426.7 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Ohio's 1st District margin of victory
Conroy, 1+ pts: 8%
24h vol $418.3 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Texas's 5th District margin of victory
Gooden, 2+ pts: 92%
24h vol $405.6 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Taichung mayoral election winner?
Chiang Chi-chen: 70%
24h vol $405 · Ends Nov 28, 2027
South Carolina Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.40M: 87%
24h vol $393.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nebraska Governor-Senate combo
Jim Pillen and Pete Ricketts win: 75%
24h vol $393.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will SCOTUS let district courts hear constitutional challenges to veterans-benefits laws?
No: 75%
24h vol $389.3 · Ends Aug 1, 2028
New York's 1st District margin of victory
LaLota, 1+ pts: 85%
24h vol $385.9 · Ends Nov 3, 2027