Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?
Public Question 1: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Will Sanae Takaichi be re-elected LDP president in 2027?
Yes: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 29, 2028
Who will win the next Manitoba PC leadership election?
Janice Lukes: 10%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 29, 2028
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Oklahoma Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
New York Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Missouri Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Maryland Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Nigerian presidential election winner?
Bola Tinubu: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2028
Nigerian Senate election winner?
APC: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2028
Will Trump’s name return to the Kennedy Center facade?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 30%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Valencia municipal election winner?
PP: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 22, 2028
Welsh Local Elections winner?
Plaid Cymru: 44%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 6, 2028
Scottish Local Elections winner?
Scottish National Party: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 6, 2028
Northern Ireland Assembly election: 2nd place
DUP: 47%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 5, 2028
Northern Ireland Assembly election winner?
Sinn Féin: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 5, 2028
Mansfield, England mayoral election winner?
Reform UK: 58%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 6, 2028
Cumbria mayoral election winner?
Reform UK: 37%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 5, 2028
Cheshire and Warrington mayoral election winner?
Reform UK: 40%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 5, 2028
Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election winner?
Colorado: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 30, 2029
Saarland state election winner?
SPD: 43%
24h vol $0 · Ends Apr 18, 2028
How many states will enact a minimum wage increase in 2027?
At least 1: 70%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?
At least 2: 46%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2028
Florida's 18th District margin of victory
Franklin, 28+ pts: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)
Democratic party: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
North Dakota Senate winner? (2028)
Republican party: 86%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 7, 2029
Massachusetts 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 190K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Louisiana Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 1.15M: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Louisiana 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 60K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027?
Yes: 56%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 1, 2027
Colorado Governor margin of victory
Weiser, 6+ pts: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
South Carolina 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
South Carolina 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 210K: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 270K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island 02 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 84%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rhode Island 01 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 133K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Who will win the next Goa Assembly election?
BJP: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 13, 2028
Labor majority in the NSW Legislative Assembly?
Yes: 58%
24h vol $0 · Ends Mar 12, 2028
Maryland 08 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland 07 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 110K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland 06 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 200K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Maryland 05 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 220K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California 26 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 170K: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Mecklenburg County, North Carolina: Roy Cooper vote percent
At least 66%: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arizona 04 House General Election: voter turnout
Above 160K: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arkansas Senate General Election: voter turnout
Above 800K: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Arkansas Governor General Election: voter turnout
Above 800K: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027