Politics Prediction Markets
Live Kalshi event contracts on elections, Congress, policy and world leaders. Prices show the crowd's odds, not certainties.
Data from Kalshi, updated ….
Informational only. Not financial or betting advice. Probabilities reflect market prices, not certainties.
Puebla mayoral election winner?
Morena: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
California's 38th District margin of victory
Solis, 9+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 39th District margin of victory
Takano, 9+ pts: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 41st District margin of victory
Sánchez, 15+ pts: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 43rd District margin of victory
Waters, 48+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 44th District margin of victory
Barragán, 40+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 45th District margin of victory
Tran, 4+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 46th District margin of victory
Correa, 22+ pts: 92%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Tijuana mayoral election winner?
Morena: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
Querétaro Governor winner?
PAN: 69%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
Lower Saxony state election winner?
SPD: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 25, 2028
Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico City mayoral election winner?
PAN: 72%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
Guadalajara, Jalisco mayoral election winner?
MC: 57%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
When will Canada gain EU associate status?
Before 2029: 17%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Who will be Latvia’s Prime Minister after the election?
Andris Kulbergs: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Oct 3, 2027
Campeche Governor winner?
Morena: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
How many lead service lines will Michigan replace in 2026?
Above 25,000: 91%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Tennessee's 9th District margin of victory
Taylor, 1+ pts: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Oregon Governor margin of victory
Drazan, 2+ pts: 12%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?
1: 51%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 8, 2029
Guatemalan presidential election winner?
Neto Bran: 26%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 26, 2028
Chihuahua Governor winner?
Morena: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
Parry Sound-Muskoka by-election winner?
Liberal: 55%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 15, 2028
Mérida, Yucatán mayoral election winner?
Morena: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 5, 2028
California's 47th District margin of victory
Min, 9+ pts: 88%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Nairobi Governor winner?
Babu Owino: 34%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 10, 2028
Will North Dakota ban cloud seeding?
No: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
Will Delaware raise its corporate franchise tax?
No: 73%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
California's 48th District margin of victory
Wilpert, 3+ pts: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Missouri's 8th District margin of victory
Republicans, 29+ pts: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Virginia require data centers to use clean energy?
No: 61%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?
No: 66%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Will New Mexico expand its FAIR Plan?
No: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 1, 2027
Will Nebraska vote to extend legislative term limits to 12 years?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 2, 2027
Who will run for Louisiana Governor in 2027?
Jeff Landry: 75%
24h vol $0 · Ends Aug 6, 2027
Greek general election winner?
New Democracy: 87%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 30, 2028
NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?
Above $200 million: 83%
24h vol $0 · Ends May 1, 2027
California's 48th District margin of victory
No: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
California's 49th District margin of victory
Levin, 9+ pts: 93%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Rome mayoral election winner?
Center-left: 64%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 12, 2028
Naples mayoral election winner?
Center-left: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 12, 2028
Guatemala City mayoral election winner?
Roberto González: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jun 27, 2028
California's 51st District margin of victory
Jacobs, 17+ pts: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?
Before Sep 1, 2027: 76%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027
When will CISA issue a new Emergency Directive?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
Colorado's 1st District margin of victory
Kiros, 48+ pts: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Nov 3, 2027
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook?
Before Jul 1, 2027: 77%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jul 1, 2027
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed?
Before Sep 1, 2027: 29%
24h vol $0 · Ends Sep 1, 2027