California permitted housing units in 2026
Markets
Above 115,000
- Yes18%
- No82%
Volume $19.9K · Liquidity $2K
Above 125,000
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $19.8K · Liquidity $4.4K
Above 120,000
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $11.7K · Liquidity $4K
Above 100,000
- Yes97%
- No3%
Volume $8.6K · Liquidity $3.7K
Above 110,000
- Yes61%
- No39%
Volume $6.6K · Liquidity $6K
Above 105,000
- Yes90%
- No10%
Volume $6K · Liquidity $1.1K
Resolution rules
If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
Colorado permitted housing units in 2026
Above 30,000: 68%
24h vol $3.5K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
Above 0.00%: 99%
24h vol $83.3 · Ends Jan 27, 2027
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
Fed maintains rate: 58%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
M2 money supply growth at year-end 2026
6.5% or Above: 27%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 26, 2027
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
Above 0.0%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2027
US nominal GDP growth in 2026
Above 0.0%: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2027
US personal saving rate at year-end 2026
4.0% or Above: 39%
24h vol $2.6 · Ends Jan 29, 2027
US personal saving rate below 2% in 2026?
No: 82%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 29, 2027
Will Hawaii visitor spending increase YoY in 2026?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $2.2K · Ends Jan 29, 2027
Port of Savannah container volume in 2026
Above 5.4 million TEUs: 95%
24h vol $40 · Ends Jan 29, 2027
Recession this year?
No: 96%
24h vol $877.6 · Ends Jan 31, 2027
U.S. imports from Iran >$5M in 2026?
No: 98%
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