Recession this year?
Markets
Will there be a recession in 2026?
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $3.7M · Liquidity $935.3K
Resolution rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
Above 0.0%: 94%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2027
US nominal GDP growth in 2026
Above 0.0%: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2027
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
Fed maintains rate: 58%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends Jan 27, 2027
Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?
Above 0.00%: 99%
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California permitted housing units in 2026
Above 100,000: 97%
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