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US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?

Markets

  • Above 3.5%

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $52.5K · Liquidity $798

  • Above 2.0%

    • Yes58%
    • No42%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Above 1.5%

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $328.1

  • Above 1.0%

    • Yes74%
    • No26%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $608

  • Above 4.0%

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $929 · Liquidity $269

  • Above 2.5%

    • Yes46%
    • No54%

    Volume $407.4 · Liquidity $231.4

  • Above 0.5%

    • Yes91%
    • No9%

    Volume $376 · Liquidity $68

  • Above 3.0%

    • Yes31%
    • No69%

    Volume $161 · Liquidity $31

  • Above 0.0%

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $138 · Liquidity $10

Resolution rules

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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