State of the economy at the end of 2026
Markets
Overheating
- Yes75%
- No25%
Volume $82.6K · Liquidity $24.5K
Soft landing
- Yes24%
- No76%
Volume $37.8K · Liquidity $8.5K
Stagflation
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $30.1K · Liquidity $10.5K
Slack / disinflation
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $5.4K · Liquidity $3K
Resolution rules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
Core CPI YoY in December
Above 2.1%: 98%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
Core CPI in December
Above 0.0%: 95%
24h vol $542.3 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
CPI YoY in December
Above 3.0%: 96%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
CPI in December
Above -0.1%: 92%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends Jan 13, 2027
CPI in December (exact value)
Exactly -0.2%: 50%
24h vol $25 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
Core CPI in December (exact value)
Exactly 0.3%: 32%
24h vol $11 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
Core CPI YoY in December (exact value)
Exactly 2.8%: 18%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
CPI YoY in December (exact value)
Exactly 4.4%: 13%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
Grocery inflation at the end of 2026?
Above 1.0%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
Will wages beat inflation in 2026?
No: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 13, 2027
US corn yield in the January 2027 USDA report
Above 181.2 bu/acre: 50%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 12, 2027
Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
At least 75 million: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 14, 2027