Will there be a Trump economic boom?
Markets
Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?
- Yes36%
- No64%
Volume $181.3K · Liquidity $29.6K
Resolution rules
If any quarter from Q1 2025 to Q4 2028 has GDP growth of above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
US nominal GDP growth in 2028
Above 0.5%: 89%
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Above 0.0%: 94%
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US trade deficit for 2028
Above $500 billion: 97%
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US labor force participation rate at year-end 2028
Above 56.00%: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2029
US unemployment rate at year-end 2028
Above 3.0%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2029
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No: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next Fed rate hike?
Before 2029: 98%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Global remittances received in 2026
Above $800 billion: 96%
24h vol $201.1 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Next Fed rate cut?
Before 2029: 82%
24h vol $1.3 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
US defaults before 2029?
No: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Fed funds rate at end of 2028
Above 1.00%: 90%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029
Global remittances sent in 2026
Above $500 billion: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 1, 2029