US trade deficit for 2028
Markets
Above $500 billion
- Yes97%
- No3%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $600 billion
- Yes97%
- No3%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $700 billion
- Yes97%
- No3%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $800 billion
- Yes92%
- No8%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $900 billion
- Yes67%
- No33%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $1.0 trillion
- Yes36%
- No64%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $1.1 trillion
- Yes17%
- No83%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Above $1.2 trillion
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Resolution rules
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2028 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 2, 2032
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Above $500 billion: 97%
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Above 0.0%: 94%
24h vol $122 · Ends Feb 1, 2029
US nominal GDP growth in 2028
Above 0.5%: 89%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2029
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No: 64%
24h vol $10 · Ends Jan 26, 2029
US real GDP growth in 2028?
2.1% to 2.5%: 13%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2029
US labor force participation rate at year-end 2028
Above 56.00%: 98%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2029
US unemployment rate at year-end 2028
Above 3.0%: 95%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 5, 2029