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How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?

Markets

  • At least 250 billion

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $37.3K · Liquidity $22.4K

  • At least 1 trillion

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $16.5K · Liquidity $3.5K

  • At least 500 billion

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $12.5K · Liquidity $2.6K

  • At least 2 trillion

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $10.6K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • At least 750 billion

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $9.9K · Liquidity $1.6K

  • At least $1 billion

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $4K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • At least 50 billion

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $794.6

  • At least 200 billion

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $741.1 · Liquidity $554.3

  • At least 100 billion

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $545.1 · Liquidity $299.4

  • At least 150 billion

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $205.4 · Liquidity $120.8

Resolution rules

If government spending (FGEXPND) is at least $1 billion below the Q4 2024 level in any quarter through Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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