Recession in 2027?
Markets
Will there be a recession in 2027?
- Yes20%
- No80%
Volume $721.4K · Liquidity $366K
Resolution rules
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Economy markets
Recession this year?
No: 96%
24h vol $877.6 · Ends Jan 31, 2027
Mississippi cotton production in 2027
Above 600,000 bales: 92%
24h vol $3.1K · Ends Jan 31, 2028
Will Indiana corn yield exceed 205 bushels per acre in 2027?
No: 53%
24h vol $499.5 · Ends Jan 31, 2028
Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals in 2027
Above 9.4 million: 86%
24h vol $18 · Ends Jan 31, 2028
US headline CPI inflation in December 2027
Above 0.0%: 98%
24h vol $31.5K · Ends Feb 1, 2028
US nominal GDP growth in 2027
Above 0.0%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 28, 2028
US trade deficit for 2027
Above $500 billion: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 4, 2028
Fed decision in Jan 2028?
Fed maintains rate: 62%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 26, 2028
Fed funds rate after Jan 2028 meeting?
Above 0.00%: 99%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 26, 2028
US labor force participation rate at year-end 2027
Above 56.50%: 97%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2028
US unemployment rate at year-end 2027
Above 3.0%: 96%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 7, 2028
US real GDP growth in 2027?
2.1% to 2.5%: 14%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 28, 2028