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How high will unemployment get before 2030?

Markets

  • Above 9%

    • Yes49%
    • No51%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $833.5

  • Above 10%

    • Yes36%
    • No64%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $2.6K

  • Above 8%

    • Yes56%
    • No44%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1K

  • Above 5%

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $1.7K · Liquidity $187

  • Above 12%

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Above 17%

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $943.7

  • Above 20%

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $182

  • Above 15%

    • Yes19%
    • No81%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $577

  • Above 7%

    • Yes90%
    • No10%

    Volume $957 · Liquidity $154.1

  • Above 6%

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $758.1 · Liquidity $248

Resolution rules

If the U-3 unemployment rate from June 2025 to January 2030 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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