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When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?

Markets

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes61%
    • No39%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $2K

  • Before Oct 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Before Nov 1, 2026

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $815 · Liquidity $344

  • Before Dec 1, 2026

    • Yes39%
    • No61%

    Volume $5 · Liquidity $5

Resolution rules

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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