Skip to content
TheKalshiAcademy
EN

US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

Markets

  • Above 8%

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $2K

  • Above 10%

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $140.1

  • Above 7%

    • Yes76%
    • No24%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Above 9%

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $1.9K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • Above 4%

    • Yes87%
    • No13%

    Volume $411 · Liquidity $411

  • Above 3%

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $272.5 · Liquidity $245.1

  • Above 11%

    • Yes48%
    • No52%

    Volume $272.3 · Liquidity $180.1

  • Above 6%

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $208.4 · Liquidity $208

  • Above 5%

    • Yes83%
    • No17%

    Volume $202 · Liquidity $200

  • Above 12%

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $59 · Liquidity $44

  • Above 13%

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $2

Resolution rules

If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q3 2026 is above 3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

More Politics markets