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Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?

Markets

  • China

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Argentina

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $4.7K · Liquidity $2.5K

  • India

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $716.8

  • Taiwan

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $210.8

  • Kenya

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $911 · Liquidity $101

  • Indonesia

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $309.4 · Liquidity $52.8

  • European Union

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $222.2 · Liquidity $144.4

  • United Kingdom

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $179.9 · Liquidity $62.9

  • Switzerland

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $16.7 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If a free trade deal with India has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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