Will Kenya and the US reach a critical minerals deal?
Markets
Before Jan 1, 2027
- Yes28%
- No72%
Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.2K
Before Dec 1, 2026
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $56 · Liquidity $56
Before Apr 1, 2027
- Yes45%
- No55%
Volume $2.1 · Liquidity $2.1
Before Nov 1, 2026
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Resolution rules
If Kenya has agreed to, signed, or accepted a critical minerals agreement with the United States before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?
Before Apr 1, 2027: 21%
24h vol $26.9 · Ends Apr 1, 2027
Blue wave in 2026?
Yes: 84%
24h vol $80.2K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Yes: 61%
24h vol $26.6K · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Who will Elon Musk back a primary against in 2026?
Steve Daines: 3%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?
Glenn Jacobs: 38%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?
No: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Will Virginia regulators approve the Dominion-NextEra merger?
Yes: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 210: 99%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 14: 90%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 10: 96%
24h vol $217 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 29%
24h vol $216.7 · Ends Jan 3, 2027