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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor?

Markets

  • Before Oct 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $8.3K · Liquidity $6.1K

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $6.1K · Liquidity $2.9K

  • Before Nov 1, 2026

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $5.2K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Before Apr 1, 2027

    • Yes16%
    • No84%

    Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Before Jan 1, 2028

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • Before Jul 1, 2027

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $765 · Liquidity $544.9

  • Before Jan 1, 2029

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $587.5 · Liquidity $587.5

  • Before Jul 1, 2028

    • Yes81%
    • No19%

    Volume $504.8 · Liquidity $304.8

Resolution rules

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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