Arkansas Senate margin of victory
Markets
Cotton, 14+ pts
- Yes52%
- No48%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $871.9
Cotton, 24+ pts
- Yes9%
- No91%
Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $731.2
Cotton, 12+ pts
- Yes73%
- No27%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $687.7
Cotton, 18+ pts
- Yes28%
- No72%
Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $515.4
Cotton, 34+ pts
- Yes15%
- No85%
Volume $1K · Liquidity $405
Cotton, 16+ pts
- Yes41%
- No59%
Volume $983.5 · Liquidity $298
Cotton, 10+ pts
- Yes73%
- No27%
Volume $975.4 · Liquidity $689.2
Cotton, 8+ pts
- Yes79%
- No21%
Volume $667.9 · Liquidity $455.5
Cotton, 22+ pts
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $292.1 · Liquidity $26.1
Cotton, 28+ pts
- Yes34%
- No66%
Volume $210 · Liquidity $210
Cotton, 30+ pts
- Yes20%
- No80%
Volume $163.9 · Liquidity $163.9
Cotton, 20+ pts
- Yes24%
- No76%
Volume $152.8 · Liquidity $127.8
Cotton, 4+ pts
- Yes84%
- No16%
Volume $143.6 · Liquidity $143.6
Cotton, 6+ pts
- Yes82%
- No18%
Volume $47.5 · Liquidity $47.5
Cotton, 26+ pts
- Yes18%
- No82%
Volume $47 · Liquidity $47
Cotton, 32+ pts
- Yes26%
- No74%
Volume $35 · Liquidity $32
Cotton, 2+ pts
- Yes87%
- No13%
Volume $21.7 · Liquidity $21.7
Resolution rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
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