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California's 45th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Tran, 13+ pts

    • Yes51%
    • No49%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Tran, 16+ pts

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Tran, 10+ pts

    • Yes68%
    • No32%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Tran, 25+ pts

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Tran, 4+ pts

    • Yes89%
    • No11%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tran, 19+ pts

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tran, 22+ pts

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tran, 28+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Tran, 7+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No22%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 45th District by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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