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Texas Senate margin of victory

Markets

  • Ken Paxton, 3+ pts

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $311.8K · Liquidity $201.4K

  • Ken Paxton, 5+ pts

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $215.8K · Liquidity $141.7K

  • Ken Paxton, 1+ pts

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $200.9K · Liquidity $144.2K

  • Ken Paxton, 7+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $121.2K · Liquidity $108.7K

  • Ken Paxton, 9+ pts

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $31.6K · Liquidity $22.3K

  • Ken Paxton, 13+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $19.5K · Liquidity $11.8K

  • Ken Paxton, 11+ pts

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $12.5K · Liquidity $7.3K

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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