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Texas Senate margin of victory

Markets

  • James Talarico, 3+ pts

    • Yes43%
    • No57%

    Volume $289.9K · Liquidity $147.8K

  • James Talarico, 7+ pts

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $204.1K · Liquidity $57.4K

  • James Talarico, 1+ pts

    • Yes62%
    • No38%

    Volume $151K · Liquidity $66.2K

  • James Talarico, 5+ pts

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $147.7K · Liquidity $116.5K

  • James Talarico, 2+ pts

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $92.2K · Liquidity $43.4K

  • James Talarico, 4+ pts

    • Yes33%
    • No67%

    Volume $32.9K · Liquidity $23.3K

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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