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California's 47th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Min, 9+ pts

    • Yes88%
    • No12%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 12+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No22%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 15+ pts

    • Yes67%
    • No34%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 18+ pts

    • Yes54%
    • No47%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 21+ pts

    • Yes40%
    • No61%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 24+ pts

    • Yes28%
    • No73%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 27+ pts

    • Yes17%
    • No84%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 30+ pts

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Min, 33+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 47th District by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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