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Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Republicans, 3+ pts

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $2.8K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Republicans, 9+ pts

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $1.5K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • Republicans, 6+ pts

    • Yes29%
    • No71%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $528.6

  • Republicans, 18+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $744.1 · Liquidity $682.1

  • Republicans, 12+ pts

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $357.2 · Liquidity $148.3

  • Republicans, 15+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $205.4 · Liquidity $200

  • Republicans, 1+ pts

    • Yes69%
    • No31%

    Volume $6 · Liquidity $6

  • Republicans, 21+ pts

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $3 · Liquidity $3

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 2nd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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