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Missouri's 3rd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Republicans, 26+ pts

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $748.3 · Liquidity $348.3

  • Republicans, 11+ pts

    • Yes79%
    • No21%

    Volume $450 · Liquidity $400

  • Republicans, 14+ pts

    • Yes70%
    • No30%

    Volume $389.3 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 20+ pts

    • Yes44%
    • No56%

    Volume $124.3 · Liquidity $124.3

  • Republicans, 29+ pts

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $58 · Liquidity $57

  • Republicans, 8+ pts

    • Yes86%
    • No14%

    Volume $47 · Liquidity $42

  • Republicans, 5+ pts

    • Yes93%
    • No7%

    Volume $1 · Liquidity $1

  • Republicans, 17+ pts

    • Yes60%
    • No40%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Republicans, 23+ pts

    • Yes34%
    • No67%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 3rd District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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