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North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory

Markets

  • Murphy, 6+ pts

    • Yes49%
    • No51%

    Volume $375 · Liquidity $375

  • Murphy, 18+ pts

    • Yes15%
    • No85%

    Volume $287.9 · Liquidity $195

  • Murphy, 3+ pts

    • Yes63%
    • No37%

    Volume $242.9 · Liquidity $187.9

  • Murphy, 15+ pts

    • Yes24%
    • No76%

    Volume $200 · Liquidity $200

  • Murphy, 12+ pts

    • Yes23%
    • No77%

    Volume $118 · Liquidity $118

  • Murphy, 9+ pts

    • Yes40%
    • No60%

    Volume $100 · Liquidity $100

  • Murphy, 24+ pts

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $2 · Liquidity $1

  • Murphy, 1+ pts

    • Yes77%
    • No23%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Murphy, 21+ pts

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in North Carolina's 3rd District by 1 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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