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New Jersey's 4th District margin of victory

Markets

  • Smith, 31+ pts

    • Yes32%
    • No68%

    Volume $560 · Liquidity $410

  • Smith, 25+ pts

    • Yes47%
    • No53%

    Volume $375 · Liquidity $375

  • Smith, 28+ pts

    • Yes45%
    • No55%

    Volume $301 · Liquidity $301

  • Smith, 34+ pts

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $295 · Liquidity $295

  • Smith, 37+ pts

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $274 · Liquidity $274

  • Smith, 13+ pts

    • Yes94%
    • No6%

    Volume $6 · Liquidity $3

  • Smith, 16+ pts

    • Yes92%
    • No8%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Smith, 19+ pts

    • Yes83%
    • No18%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Smith, 22+ pts

    • Yes71%
    • No30%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Resolution rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New Jersey's 4th District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

Probability calculators · Glossary · Free courses

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