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Will CMS release any deferred Medicaid funds to California or Minnesota?

Markets

  • Before Sep 1, 2026

    Closed
    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $2.4K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • Before Jan 1, 2027

    • Yes55%
    • No45%

    Volume $339.2 · Liquidity $20.3

Resolution rules

If the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announces a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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