What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
Markets
10% or above
- Yes87%
- No13%
Volume $601.2 · Liquidity $601
20% or above
- Yes33%
- No67%
Volume $145.9 · Liquidity $145.9
30% or above
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $3.4 · Liquidity $3.4
15% or above
- Yes50%
- No50%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
40% or above
- Yes51%
- No50%
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
Resolution rules
If the general import tariff rate on imports from the European Union into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to read these odds
Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.
More Politics markets
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
Before Jan 1, 2027: 7%
24h vol $444.5 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
FTC investigation into AI book destruction in 2026?
No: 92%
24h vol $58 · Ends Jan 1, 2027
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?
Before Jan 2027: 68%
24h vol $0 · Ends Jan 2, 2027
How many House seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 210: 99%
24h vol $4.9K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
At least 14: 90%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
At least 10: 96%
24h vol $217 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many Senate seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 29%
24h vol $216.7 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?
No: 94%
24h vol $110.2 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
How many House seats will Independents win in the Midterms?
At least 1: 22%
24h vol $77.5 · Ends Jan 3, 2027
Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?
No: 67%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
NYC teachers' aides paid the Respect Check before Feb 2027?
No: 80%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027
Will Virginia regulators approve the Dominion-NextEra merger?
Yes: 71%
24h vol $0 · Ends Feb 1, 2027